Timing the Market - Mortgage Rates and Housing Prices Part 1
January 21, 2008
I get asked by clients every day, are we at the bottom of the market? Is now the time to buy? Should I refinance into a fixed rate mortgage now? Will rates continue to fall? These are all good questions, but the answers should not dictate your actions.Let’s talk about the housing market in general right now. It has been falling for some time, foreclosures are at all time highs and some areas are 40% or more off their highs. Are we at the bottom of the market? Probably not. Foreclosure activity has not subsided yet, and we are still in a shaking out period for a number of adjustable rate loans, and more importantly, the neg-am loans. Are we near the bottom? Maybe, maybe not. The funny thing about the bottom of any market is that you don’t know you’ve hit the bottom until the bottom has passed you by. This can be especially important when talking about real estate.If you are trying to time the bottom of the stock market, you can sit on the sidelines and once you decide to get back in, you can be fully vested in a matter of minutes. Stocks are very liquid, everyone has online trading, press a button and your chosen stocks can be purchased almost instantly. Real estate, on the other hand, is a different kind of animal. You can sit on the sidelines, watching the market fall, waiting for the upswing just like the stock market. The difference is getting back in.
You have a lengthy period of time from the point you decide to get back in until you actually own a piece of real estate. You have to look for property, you have to find a property, you have to put offers in on the property, you have an escrow period, you have to obtain financing, it could be months between the time you decide to purchase and when you actually own. If you are a first time homebuyer, it could be even longer as you will be going through the process for the first time.
During this time, if the market has started to turn for the better, you can count on the fact that you will not be the only one trying to hop back on the real estate train. I remember the days of multiple offers, lotteries for new homes with hundreds of people in attendance, and major appreciation of any piece of real estate seemingly overnight. It wasn’t that long ago, and the sellers held all the cards at that time.
These days, as a buyer, you are in a position of power. You can call the shots, play hardball at the negotiating table and there are not 5 other offers to compete with. Seller paid closing costs are pretty common these days, entering contract below the original asking price is definitely not out of the question, and you have a glut of properties on the market, you can pick and choose the very best property in the very best neighborhood.
So are we at the bottom of the market? Maybe not. Are we near the bottom? Possibly. Is now the time to buy? Absolutely. If you find the right property at the right price, now is a great time to buy. Long term, real estate is going to come back. Right now you have the opportunity to buy at up to 40% off the top of the market, how far do you expect real estate to fall? Not only that, you have so many choices out there that you can buy exactly what you want. You don’t have to settle for your second choice. You are not paying top dollar, and you can probably buy a property for less than the asking price, especially if you have a good buyers agent.
If you have been sitting on the sidelines, debating when to get into the housing market it’s time to get busy. If you would like help finding an honest real estate professional to represent you (and you should always have representation, it costs you nothing as a buyer), my wife, Michelle can help. She can refer you to excellent representation nationwide, and can represent you directly here in Contra Costa County.
Check back in, I will be talking about mortgage rates tomorrow, where they are now, where they might be headed in the near future, and whether or not it is time to look into a refinance. As always, feel free to contact me with any questions, good luck in your endeavors!




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